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A Path towards Low Carbon Guangzhou Peng Wang Energy Strategy Research Center Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion Chinese Academy of Sciences 17 Oct 2011 Content The importance and motivation Socio-Economic Assumption Energy demand and GHG emissions Actions towards Low carbon city Note: This is just a stage achievement of academic research, it does not represent the view of our government. Importance & Motivation National emission reduction targets [USA] Emission in 2020 reduce by 14- 17% compared with 2005 [ EU ] Emission in 2020 reduce by 20- 30% compared with 1990 [RUSS] Emission in 2020 reduce by 15- 25% compared with 1990 [JP] Emission in 2020 reduce by 25% compared with 1990 [AUS] Emission in 2020 reduce by 25% compared with 2000 China’s Position Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao promises: the CO2 emissions per unit GDP in 2020 will reduce 40%- 45% compared with 2005. In August 2010, The National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) launched the pilot program on national low-carbon provinces and cities in Beijing, which include 5 provinces and 8 cities. Importance & Motivation -Why Guangzhou? Location Guangzhou is the capital of Guangdong province in the southern part of China. It is a port on the Pearl River, navigable to the South China Sea, and is located about 120km (75miles) northwest of Hong Kong. Importance & Motivation -Why Guangzhou? 60 Production of Energy Other 8% 50 Consumption of Energy Coal 16% Million TCE Electricity 40 40% 30 Oil 32% Gas 4% 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Energy consumption structure in 2009 Rapid growth in energy demand, To be further optimized energy large energy consumption consumption structure Lack of domestic energy resource, The obvious contradiction between energy great dependency on import development and environmental protection Source: Statistics Bureau of Guangzhou Municipality Importance & Motivation -Why Guangzhou? Enhance industrial competitiveness reduce Slow down emission to the rapid response the growth of climate energy change demand Guangdong is one of the five Low-carbon pilot provinces. As the capital of Guangdong, Guangzhou should explore the low-carbon development path actively to play a leader role. Socio-Economic Assumption in 2030 Quantitative socio-economic assumption in 2030 Indicator Set Value（2030） 2030 Tendency Population Estimates based on “The Eleventh Growth rate at 1.2% per annum Five-Year Plan of Guangzhou National Economy and Social Development” Demographic 0-14: 8% (14.8% in 2005) Birth and death rate are declined composition 15-64: 80.5% (77.6%) 65 and over: 11.5% (7.6) Population Urbanization rate is 95% Urbanization increases distribution ( 82% in 2005) Average number of Urban: 2.6 (3.2 in 2005) Significant decrease in average size of person per household Rural: 3 (3.55 in 2005) household GDP Growth rate is 6% per annum Guangzhou is on increasing economic growth trajectory and has priorities in meeting the development needs.